Increased Age-Adjusted Cancer Mortality After the Third mRNA-Lipid Nanoparticle Vaccine Dose During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

https://www.cureus.com/articles/19627...

Gibo M, Kojima S, Fujisawa A, et al. (April 08, 2024) Increased Age-Adjusted Cancer Mortality After the Third mRNA-Lipid Nanoparticle Vaccine Dose During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan. Cureus 16(4): e57860. DOI 10.7759/cureus.57860

Conclusions

Statistically significant increases in age-adjusted mortality rates of all cancer and some specific types of cancer, namely, ovarian cancer, leukemia, prostate, lip/oral/pharyngeal, pancreatic, and breast cancers, were observed in 2022 after two-thirds of the Japanese population had received the third or later dose of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-LNP vaccine.

These particularly marked increases in mortality rates of these ERα-sensitive cancers may be attributable to several mechanisms of the mRNA-LNP vaccination,

rather than COVID-19 infection itself or reduced cancer care due to the lockdown.

Researchers have reported that the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA-LNP vaccine may pose the risk of development and progression of cancer.

Several case reports have described cancer developing or worsening after vaccination and discussed possible causal links between cancer and mRNA-LNP vaccination.

Details of the paper

No significant excess mortality was observed during the first year of the pandemic (2020).

However, some excess cancer mortalities were observed in 2021 after mass vaccination with the first and second vaccine doses,

and significant excess mortalities were observed for all cancers and some specific types of cancer after mass vaccination with the third dose in 2022.

During the COVID-19 pandemic

Excess deaths including cancer have become a concern in Japan

Study aimed to evaluate how age-adjusted mortality rates (AMRs) for different types of cancer in Japan changed during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022).

Official statistics from Japan,

used to compare observed annual and monthly AMRs,

with predicted rates based on pre- pandemic (2010-2019) figures

In 2020

(first year of the pandemic)

Significant deficit mortality for all causes, and no excess mortality for all cancers.

In 2021

Significant excess mortality of 2.1% for all causes,

and 1.1% for all cancers.

In 2022

Excesses mortality, 9.6%

2.1% for all cancers

Number of excess deaths 115,799

Number of excess cancer deaths, 7,162

Lung, colorectal, stomach, pancreatic, and liver cancer

Accounted for 61% of deaths from all cancers.

AMRs for the four cancers with the most deaths showed a decreasing trend until the first year of the pandemic in 2020,

but the rate of decrease slowed in 2021 and 2022.

Since February 2021, the mRNA-lipid nanoparticle (mRNA-LNP) vaccine has been available for emergency use,

and is recommended for all aged six months and older

As of March 2023

80% of the Japanese population had received first and second doses,

68% had received third dose,

45% had received fourth dose

Excess deaths from causes other than COVID-19 have been reported in various countries, including deaths from cancer,

and Japan is no exception

Japan, good data

Large population of 123 million

Availability of official statistics

80% accuracy rate of death certificates according to autopsy studies

Vaccination rates by age group, the websites of the Prime Minister's Office and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare

Discussion

All cancer deaths: A statistically significant excess emerged in 2021 and increased further in 2022.

In addition, significant excess monthly mortality was observed after August 2021,

whereas mass vaccination of the general population began around April 2021.

There were excess trends in cancer deaths across most age groups.

The significant increases in mortalities for six specific cancer types were unlikely to be explained by a shortage of healthcare services.