How Mr. Taleb Got Utterly Fooled by Randomness by Gary North
"Yet when we look more carefully at Mr. Taleb's operating presuppositions, we find that he has made a supreme error. In his quest to uncover the undoubted mysteries of the financial universe, he has come to a conclusion so utterly incorrect that if it were widely believed, it would undermine the moral and intellectual foundations of civilization....He admits that he is often fooled by randomness. He has no self-awareness of just how fooled he is." EXCELLENT, thought-provoking critique of Taleb's ideas. Haven't gone through all the arguments, but they strike a chord. Worth exploring.
"As a practitioner of science, I am opposed to teaching religious ideas in schools. But, it seems to me somewhat misplaced energy — more of a fight for principles than for any bottom line. As an empirical skeptic, I would like to introduce a dimension to the debates: relevance, consequence, and our ability to correct a situation — in other words the impact on our daily lives."
"Much of what happens in history", he notes, "comes from 'Black Swan dynamics', very large, sudden, and totally unpredictable 'outliers', while much of what we usually talk about is almost pure noise. Our track record in predicting those events is dismal; yet by some mechanism called the hindsight bias we think that we understand them. We have a bad habit of finding 'laws' in history (by fitting stories to events and detecting false patterns); we are drivers looking through the rear view mirror while convinced we are looking ahead."
Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page
Don't judge him by the mess he calls a website. Celebrate that he doesn't waste his time fiddling with the site. I'd rather he write more than clean up this mess.
A focus on the exceptions that prove the rule - pt.1| Financial Times
A focus on the exceptions that prove the rule - pt.2 | Financial Times
KQED | Forum: Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Randomness and Probability
The show discusses randomness, probability and evidence with philosopher Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of "Fooled by Randomness" and, most recently, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable."

"Quick Notes and Comments in the Old Style (not a blog, mostly a scratchpad for comments related to my work-in-progress & answers to some readers; basically working notes I don't end up putting in my book) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb."
NPR : 'Black Swans' and the Problems of Probability
Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses his theory about events he calls "Black Swans" occurrences that seems to be totally impossible. In his new book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim explains how to understand the structure of uncertainty.
Arlene Goldbard - Blog Archive - My New Crush
"Meet Nassim Taleb, a thinker who just might clash with the furniture. Since I discovered him a few days ago, I've been downloading, ordering books and listening to podcasts. Go to EconTalk for the best podcast, Taleb's Web site for links to most everything, and Wikipedia for an overview." This woman has some very intelligent things to say about Taleb's ideas. Well worth reading.

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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